When Forest can qualify for the Champions League: Run-in and permutations
da apostebet： As the Champions League quarter-finals get underway, Nottingham Forest supporters can only look on as Midlands rivals Aston Villa chase the ultimate glory on Europe’s biggest stage.
da poker： However, after a dazzling season that has seen Nuno Espirito Santo’s side make a charge for the continent’s premier club competition, Forest could yet be mixing it with the big boys, as they sit third with seven games remaining.
With England set to be handed five slots in the 2025/26 league phase, Forest’s chances of returning to the Champions League for the first time since 1980 have been enhanced further.
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But with some crunch fixtures and an FA Cup semi-final to navigate before the season’s end, everything still hangs in the balance.
So when could Nottingham Forest confirm their place in the Champions League? Here, we look at the permutations.
Who qualifies for the Champions League?
England are set to earn a fifth Champions League place via the league this season.
This is a result of English clubs’ performances in Europe this year, with five clubs still active across the three European competitions: Arsenal and Aston Villa in the Champions League; Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United in the Europa League; and Chelsea in the Conference League.
Manchester City and Liverpool were knocked out of the Champions League in the knockout play-off round and last 16 respectively.
The two nations with the highest national coefficients for the season earn an extra Champions League place.
England’s coefficient for the season is far greater than the likes of Italy and Germany, making them near-certainties to gain the fifth league spot at the time of writing.
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1 How many points do Nottingham Forest need to claim a top-five spot?
As things stand, Nottingham Forest would require 74 points to absolutely guarantee a place in the Premier League’s top five.
With sixth-placed reigning champions Manchester City on 52 points – five behind Forest ahead of the Reds’ weekend clash against Everton – the maximum points haul Pep Guardiola’s side can reach is 73.
This means Forest’s fight to confirm could go to the wire, but with the number of teams involved, it’s unlikely that another 17 points from 21 available will be necessary, particularly with some playing each other in the run-in.
Premier League table (as of 8th April 2025)
Rank
Team
P
GD
PTS
3
Nottingham Forest
31
+14
57
4
Chelsea
31
+17
53
5
Newcastle
30
+13
53
6
Man City
31
+17
52
7
Aston Villa
31
0
51
Who are Nottingham Forest's top-five challengers?
While Liverpool and Arsenal are leading the pack (the Anfield side have already confirmed their place in the Champions League), Forest are currently at the front of the queue to join them in the UCL.
As of 8th April, there is a four-point buffer to Chelsea and Newcastle United, though the Magpies have a game in hand. Nevertheless, Forest are fully in control of their destiny as it stands.
Outside the current top five, Man City and Aston Villa will be hoping to usurp those in front of them, but like Forest, both of those clubs have the added challenge of dealing with cup campaigns.
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It looks as though the likes of Fulham, Brighton and Bournemouth have dropped out of Champions League contention.
Chelsea are the only side currently in the top half on Forest’s fixture list, which may give the East Midlanders an advantage in the season’s final weeks.
And bar a late-season collapse, Forest’s Champions League fate may well have been decided before their clash with the Conference League-chasing Blues on the final day.
Premier League run-in: Champions League race
Date/Team
Nottm Forest
Chelsea
Newcastle
Man City
Aston Villa
12th April
Everton (H)
Crystal Palace (H)
Southampton (A)
13th April
Ipswich (H)
Man Utd (H)
16th April
Crystal Palace (H)
19th April
Aston Villa (A)
Everton (A)
Newcastle (H)
20th April
Fulham (A)
21st April
Tottenham (A)
22nd April
Aston Villa (H)
Man City (A)
26th April
Everton (H)
Ipswich (H)
1st May
Brentford (H)
2nd May
Wolves (H)
3rd May
Fulham (H)
4th May
Liverpool (H)
Brighton (A)
5th May
Crystal Palace (A)
10th May
Newcastle (A)
Chelsea (H)
Southampton (A)
Bournemouth (A)
11th May
Leicester (H)
18th May
West Ham (A)
Man Utd (H)
Arsenal (A)
Bournemouth (H)
Tottenham (H)
25th May
Chelsea (H)
Nottm Forest (A)
Everton (H)
Fulham (A)
Man Utd (A)
Can Nottingham Forest do it?
Forest are certainly in a great position at this late stage of the season. Having battled relegation and a points deduction last term, not many will have seen this coming.
But now is the crunch period – so can they pull off an incredible transformation and qualify for the Champions League?
One thing certainly in their favour is the run-in – all bar one of their remaining opponents headed into April as a bottom-half club.
Another reason they could receive a boost is the congested field battling for a top-five place. Villa still have to face Man City and Newcastle, who also have Chelsea and potential banana-skin trips to Brighton and Arsenal to come.
This means guaranteed dropped points, so Forest will most likely be afforded more wriggle room before the season concludes.
However, there are at least a couple of pitfalls for Forest to be wary of. One is their goal difference, which is weaker than Chelsea’s and Manchester City’s and perilously close to Newcastle’s, who have scored marginally more goals as things stand.
If things get tight, they could be left to rue their 5-0 defeat to Bournemouth, even if it was remedied by their 7-0 demolition of Brighton a week later.
Understandably, there is also a lack of run-in experience – at the top end, at least. However, their rate of improvement and general consistency suggests they have what it takes to get over the line.
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